- 随着外汇流入激增，比特币最近的涨幅受到了质疑，这表明存在获利回吐 ；
- 从历史上看，比特币在9月份的表现一直很差，导致市场紧张。
比特币[BTC] 截至发稿时，价格为56864美元，24小时内上涨3.6%。此前，交易量增长了31% CoinMarketCap ；
The renewed optimism comes despite September being one of the worst months for Bitcoin. However, despite the upsurge, several signals are yet to turn bullish, creating concerns that BTC might not be out of the woods yet；
九月熊市困扰着交易员
总体市场情绪仍然看跌 比特币恐惧和贪婪指数 33点，表明交易员正在为9月份价格下跌的潜在重演做准备。
事实上，美国基金经理NYDIG最近的一份报告 注意 市场可能是，
“下个月将陷入季节性的困境。”；
“下个月将陷入季节性的困境。”；
报告还指出；
“平均而言，比特币在9月份下跌了5.9%，回报率中位数为-6.0%。考虑到9月份才刚刚开始，这并不是什么安慰。”；
“平均而言，比特币在9月份下跌了5.9%，回报率中位数为-6.0%。考虑到9月份才刚刚开始，这并不是什么安慰。”；
这种情绪可能会在本月底发生变化。根据 Rekt资本 , Bitcoin could be headed for three straight months of positive upside in the last quarter of the year；
As past price declines in September haunt traders, Bitcoin’s upside potential remains capped；
外汇流入量达到7天高点；
Another key signal showing that a bearish trend is in play is exchange inflows；
CryptoQuant的数据显示，9月9日，流入现货交易所的比特币达到18193，比前一天公布的2535个比特币大幅增加。这也是七天来最大的资金流入水平。
The surge in inflows coincided with a recovery in BTC prices, suggesting profit-taking. It signals that traders are anticipating a bearish trend ahead as they choose to trim losses；
Such selling activity indicates that traders do not anticipate a major breakthrough in price, and Bitcoin’s uptrend might continue to face resistance；
获利回吐行为在CryptoQuant的支出产出利润率（SOPR）比率中得到了进一步的体现，该比率已超过1，表明交易者正在出售以实现收益。
这可能会抑制比特币的涨幅。
买家犹豫不决；
In a typical crypto bear market, buying activity remains relatively low. This trend has appeared on the Bitcoin daily chart；
自8月27日以来，Chaikin资金流一直为负值。尽管出现了一些购买活动，但这一指标已经两周没有转为正值。
This shows that Bitcoin has experienced more selling than buying within this period；
Moreover, BTC has traded below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average for two weeks now. This shows that the general market sentiment is negative；
The inability of BTC to reclaim the 200-day EMA also indicates a lack of confidence among traders in a near-term price recovery；
即将公布的CPI数据；
Crypto traders are also turning their attention towards the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that will be released on Wednesday；
根据 市场观察员 , investors expect the August CPI print to come in at 2.6%, a drop from the previous month’s 2.9%；
Positive inflation data will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve easing interest rates next week；
根据 芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具 73%的投资者预计将降息25个基点，而27%的投资者预计降息幅度将更大，达到50个基点。
上周，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦在 说 the economy was healthy and headed into a recovery；
The Fed easing rates for the first time since 2020 will boost appetite for risk assets such as crypto, which might lower the odds of a crypto bear market；
一个积极的信号出现了
While bearish signals are dominating, a positive sign emerged when spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flipped positive for the first time since late August；
9月9日，现货比特币ETF的流入量为每只2800万美元 SoSoValue data；
阅读 比特币的[BTC]价格预测 2024–2025
However, the two largest Bitcoin ETFs by net assets saw negative outflows. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw $9M and $22M in outflows, respectively；
如果比特币ETF的数据在本周剩余时间里呈现积极态势，这将重新激发加密货币交易员的乐观情绪，并缓解对熊市的担忧。
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